October 23rd, the central bank again lowered the benchmark interest rate of RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions, while the lower financial institutions RMB deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, which is the sixth time since 2014 to cut interest rates.
According to the National Bureau of statistics data, real estate development and investment growth continued to decline last year, the first three quarters of an increase of 2.6%, residential investment growth of only 1.7%, a record low.
On the one hand, continued to decline in the real estate investment; on the other hand, the real estate deal filed one after another, senior steady estate determination is evident.
October 26th to 29, held in Beijing, the eighteen session of the fifth plenary session will discuss the "Thirteen five plan". Real estate can continue as a pillar industry in the next five to ten years, causing widespread discussion and concern in the industry.
Twenty-first Century economic report reporter was informed that the Ministry of housing related to the real estate industry has been clear, that the "five eleven" during the "Twelfth Five Year" period of rapid construction will come to an end, increase the effective supply, improve housing quality, improve the living environment, is the next five years, the industry must follow the situation and trend.
Real estate investment growth gradually decline
"From the beginning of the end of 11 in the current round of rate cut, the purchase of the 6 rate cut in accordance with the benchmark interest rate, the interest rate of 20 million years to reduce the rate of 225700." Centaline Property Market Analyst Zhang Dawei believes that the real estate market ushered in the policy of the most relaxed stage.
However, this year, the new deal is difficult to effect last year. According to the 15 major cities of the state of the world, a second tier cities, in September, sales rose by 34% to 17.9% in and even fell by 7.4% in August. This is mainly due to the weakening of the second tier cities sales momentum, the first tier cities to maintain the basic growth of the previous.
"Including a rate cut down quasi real estate deal although the property market warming, from the current market situation, in October the property market turnover will heat up, but over the years, will continue to decline." Zhang Dawei is expected to take into account the economic needs, the possibility of further reducing the rate of interest rates again.
All along, real estate investment is an important factor in boosting China's economic growth, the contribution rate was as high as 30%, however, since 2014, real estate investment growth gradually decline, and re exploration in the three quarter.
With a view of the real estate investment will be in the fourth quarter bottomed, market participants believe that the market has been the frequent real estate deal produced drug resistance, in 2016 the real estate situation is not optimistic.
Needless to say, the decline in real estate investment has also directly affected the GDP data, the National Bureau of statistics data also show that the first three quarters, GDP is also the first time below 7%.
"In the long run, China does need to go to the real estate, that is, the real estate from the pillar position gradually back down." Chou Baoxing, Minister of housing and construction in the recently held by the Tsinghua University open seminar, said the current China's per capita real estate is about 33-35 square meters, close to the level of France and Japan, the proportion of real estate investment is gradually reduced to normal, sustained substantial growth will certainly be a big problem.
Chou Baoxing believes that, in the short term, the current real estate market investment has shrunk dramatically, no new investment can make up, which is the current introduction of new deal, stable real estate investment is an important factor.
Steady real estate investment ideas change
On the occasion of the upcoming "45", the real estate can undertake the responsibility of macro economic development in the next five to ten years, but also lead to industry wide discussion and attention.
It is said that the number of China's labor has reached a peak, the total population will reach a peak in 2020. Now the housing has been a serious oversupply, the gradual reduction of the population in the future, the extent of housing supply will be strengthened. Therefore, the real estate market can not be used as the future economic development.
Chou Baoxing believes that China's real estate will also face at least 10 years of rapid development. And the evidence of an important data is the view of the town of urbanization rate.
"China's urbanization rate is unlikely to reach more than 70%, the peak value of real estate is about 65%, that is, 35% of people live in rural areas." Chou Baoxing is introduced.
As of the end of 2014, China's urbanization rate reached 54.77%. According to the plan, to the "Thirteen five" at the end, the resident population urbanization rate reached about 60%.
In other words, the next 5 years -10 years is still the rapid development of urbanization level, there will be about 100000000 of the agricultural population and other resident population settled in towns. During this period, the real estate can not be a big crisis.
Chou Baoxing believes that the next ten years, real estate is still an important pillar to support macroeconomic, but the idea of stabilizing real estate investment will also be different.
Chou Baoxing said that the core of the future of urbanization is the transformation from quantity to quality, can be a single housing construction and energy saving, water saving and other links, individuals, funds and government jointly pay, the depth of urbanization, improve the quality of urbanization.
"30 years ago, the real estate is no doubt the support of the economy, but a result of the rapid development is the emphasis on speed and neglect of quality, many of the houses in the structure of the problem, such as no elevator and underground waterways, higher carbon emissions." Chou Baoxing thinks, future urbanization depth also need to fill a vacancy.
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